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Severin Sorensen

Riding the Waves of Change: Insights from Jellison's J-Curve for Today's Business Leaders

Gartner reports that modern organizations have implemented an average of five significant company-wide changes in the last three years. Moreover, nearly 75% anticipate expanding their scope of major change initiatives over the next three years. Despite these efforts, half of these initiatives end in failure, with only 34% achieving clear success (Gartner, 2018).

Whether responding to industry disruptions, market fluctuations, or internal transformations, leaders are tasked with guiding their organizations to emerge stronger. A valuable framework that provides deep insights into managing change successfully is Jellison's J-Curve. This framework distinguishes between expectations, hopes, and the realities that typically unfold during change processes.



Understanding Jellison's J-Curve

The J-Curve model illustrates the typical trajectory of change and adaptation. At its core, the J-Curve depicts a dip followed by an upward curve, symbolizing initial setbacks and eventual growth through adaptation and learning. This concept is invaluable for executives, business leaders, and coaches alike, providing a structured approach to understanding and managing the challenges inherent in any transformational journey.


One of the most critical elements to address before announcing a change is the difference between stakeholders' “Expectations” and the reality of its “Implementation.” During the expectations stage, it's essential to align hopes with realistic goals and clearly communicate achievable milestones and timelines, while also highlighting potential challenges. When the implementation stage begins and reality sets in, resulting in an initial decline in productivity, it's important to have actionable plans with defined objectives, roles, and resources to minimize the risk of failure. 


Recognizing that change often takes longer than anticipated allows for proactive mitigation of obstacles and iterative adjustments. Continuous communication, feedback integration, and adaptability ensure transparency and accountability, increasing the likelihood of successful and sustainable change outcomes.


In the following sections, we explore both the “Dip” and the “Curve,” along with key questions to ask and strategies to implement, ensuring sustained and successful change.


The Dip: Embracing Initial Setbacks

The  J-Curve begins with the dip—a phase characterized by challenges, resistance, and uncertainty. For business leaders, this phase often manifests as initial implementation hurdles, resistance from stakeholders, or unforeseen obstacles. Understanding where your organization stands within this dip is crucial for effectively managing expectations and maintaining morale.


Topics to communicate when preparing for change:

  • Purpose and Alignment: What specific problem or opportunity is prompting this change, and how does it align with our strategic goals?

  • Stakeholder Engagement: Who are the key stakeholders affected by this change, and what are the benefits to them?

  • Resources and Support: What resources (financial, human, technological) are we implementing to support this change, and what type of support and training will be provided?

  • Risk Assessment: What are the potential risks we’ve weighed with this change? And, what is our plan to mitigate them?

  • Measurement and Feedback: How will success be measured and acted upon once the change takes into effect?


Strategies for navigating the dip:

  • Foster a Culture of Agility: Encourage flexibility and adaptability within teams to respond swiftly to changing conditions and unforeseen challenges.

  • Streamline Processes: Identify and eliminate unnecessary steps or bottlenecks in workflows to streamline the implementation of change initiatives.

  • Implement Change Champions: Identify and empower change champions within the organization who can advocate for the initiative and inspire others to embrace the change.

  • Ensure Leadership Alignment: Ensure that all levels of leadership are aligned with the change initiative's goals and actively support its implementation.

  • Solicit Customer and Stakeholder Input: Engage customers and stakeholders early and often to gather feedback and ensure that the change initiative meets their needs and expectations.


The Curve: Leveraging Adaptation and Growth

As leaders and teams navigate through the dip, they begin to ascend the curve—a phase marked by adaptation, learning, and incremental successes. This upward trajectory signifies the application of lessons learned, adjustments in strategy, and the gradual alignment of organizational resources with new objectives. It's during this phase that momentum builds, and initial setbacks give way to visible progress and achievement.


Questions to drive progress and identify opportunities:

  • Comparison: How do our current achievements compare to our initial expectations and benchmarks?

  • Engagement: Beyond feedback, what deeper insights or concerns have emerged from stakeholders during this stage?

  • Motivation: How can leadership further champion the change initiative to inspire and motivate teams?

  • Perspectives: What insights can we gain from external sources or best practices to refine our approach?

  • Sustainability: How scalable are our current successes and approaches to accommodate future growth or broader implementation?


Strategies for navigating the curve:

  • Consistency: Continuously communicate the vision, purpose, and benefits of the change initiative to inspire commitment and alignment.

  • Personalization: Tailor messages to different audiences and stakeholders, emphasizing how the initiative supports broader organizational objectives.

  • Performance management: Define, track, and communicate key performance indicators (KPIs) specific to the change initiative to measure progress and outcomes.

  • Partnership: Collaborate with external partners, industry experts, or consultants to gain additional insights, resources, or support.

  • Recognition: Celebrate achievements, milestones, and successful outcomes to recognize efforts and maintain morale.


Progressing Through the Curve: Sustaining Momentum and Innovation

Continued progress along the J-Curve requires sustained effort and a commitment to innovation and resilience. Leaders must continuously assess their position on the curve, identify opportunities for improvement, and foster a culture of adaptive learning within their organizations. This phase is characterized by proactive decision-making, strategic foresight, and a willingness to iterate and evolve in response to changing market dynamics.


Questions to ask to encourage sustained success:

  • How can we maintain momentum as we progress along the J-Curve?

  • What new opportunities or market shifts should we anticipate and prepare for?

  • How can we encourage ongoing innovation and creativity within our teams?

  • Are there areas where we can streamline processes or enhance efficiency to sustain growth?


Red flags to watch for and mitigate:

  • Complacency and Loss of Momentum: If there is a decline in enthusiasm or a perception that the initiative is "done," it can lead to complacency and a loss of momentum. Signs include reduced engagement, lack of proactive problem-solving, and decreased urgency in meeting milestones.

  • Lack of Resources or Support: Insufficient resources, such as budget constraints, limited time, or inadequate staffing, can hinder implementation and sustainment. Red flags include delays in resource allocation, competing priorities overshadowing the initiative, or unrealistic expectations of outcomes without adequate support.

  • Poor Communication and Alignment: Communication breakdowns or misunderstandings about goals, roles, or expectations can derail progress. Red flags include confusion about the initiative's purpose, conflicting messages from leadership, or misalignment between different teams or departments.

  • Over-Extension or Scope Creep: Attempting to achieve too much too quickly or expanding the scope beyond manageable limits can strain resources and compromise quality. Red flags include constant changes in project scope, unrealistic timelines, or shifting priorities without clear justification.

  • Loss of Strategic Focus: Shifting priorities, competing initiatives, or organizational changes can divert attention and resources away from the change initiative. Red flags include frequent pivoting in strategy, inconsistent messaging about goals, or strategic drift without realignment.


The main takeaway

Understanding the phases of the J-Curve—embracing the dip, leveraging adaptation, and sustaining growth—provides a roadmap for executives and coaches to guide their organizations towards sustained success. It involves fostering cultural alignment that supports each phase, maintaining flexibility in strategy to adapt to feedback and changing circumstances, and encouraging ongoing innovation and creativity. Proactively managing risks, fostering high employee engagement, and integrating these elements into the change process are essential for harnessing the full potential of the J-Curve model and achieving lasting, impactful change.


References

Gartner. (2018). Managing Organizational Change. Gartner. https://www.gartner.com/en/human-resources/insights/organizational-change-management


Copeland, L. (Jan, 2023). “Happiness, Recruitment, and Retention.” Nordic Global. www.nordicglobal.com/blog/happiness-recruitment-and-retention


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